Tag Archives: 2012

2012

By: Josh Raines

Like it or not the Republicans will be trying to nominate a person in 2012 who can beat President Obama. I am sure we can all agree that depending on a variety of circumstances this may or may not be possible. But regardless of who wins the Presidency in four years from now, who will the Republicans nominate?

 

            I believe I can accurately narrow the list of Candidates who will have a shot at taking on President Obama in four years. I will use mainly historical analysis to narrow the list of possible contenders and make an accurate prediction.

 

            If we take a look at the most recent Presidential Republican primary in 2008, we find that John McCain was the Republican’s choice over all the rest. But was John McCain just lucky, was it hard work or was it fate? I would argue that is was all of the above, however we will look at fate.

 

            My hypothesis is that Republicans rarely, if ever nominate a Candidate they are not familiar with or someone who is new on the scene. Democrats on the other hand I would argue throw their support behind just about anybody no matter what.

 

            If we look at John McCain we must ask our selves, was he new to the scene? The Answer is no, he is a long time Republican Senator from the state of Arizona. He has been a leader in the party and the Senate. More importantly however is the fact that he ran against George W. Bush in 2000. This gave him I believe his shot at being nominated this year.

           

            If we go back four years ago there were no primaries due to the fact that George W. Bush was already the President running for re-election.

 

            If we go back to the 2000 Primaries we have the winner as George W. Bush as the Republican nominee. I would argue that Bush had great name recognition from his father which allowed him to circumvent my hypothesis. I guess in a way he can be my exception to the rule however he was still known by the party through his dad.

 

            Let’s now travel back to the 1996 primaries. We have the winner Bob Dole taking the stage, however not for the first time. If we look back in history we will find that not only had Dole like McCain been a Republican leader in the Senate but he also ran on the ticket with President Ford in 1976 which I believe helped him get his shot at taking on President Clinton.

           

            If we travel back further to the 1992 primaries we find the winner of the Republican nomination as none other than George H. W. Bush. Now Bush the First was certainly no newbie to politics, he was Vice-President to Ronald Reagan and had been a congressman, Ambassador and director CIA. While all of these things are good, I believe what gave him his shot was the fact that he ran in 1980 and lost to the Great Communicator.

           

 The 1984 primaries did not exist due to the fact the Gipper was already the President and he was running for re-election.

           

            Going back to the 1980 Republican primaries we find the victor, Ronald Reagan clinching the nomination. While Ronald Reagan may be one of my favorite Presidents I still believe that the only reason he got his shot was due to my hypothesis. While Reagan had great experience running the biggest state in our country this would have been meaningless if he had not ran against Ford in 1976, which gave him the familiarity needed to prevail in 1980.

 

            1976 is a very strange election to analyze because I have never really considered Ford to be an actual President (Constitution stipulates Presidents must be elected by college electors).  Never the less Ford won the nomination not because of his years of service in the house or as Vice-President but mainly because he was the “President” technically running for re-election.

 

            The 1972 primaries were not needed due to the fact that Dick Nixon was being kicked around, and he was the current Republican president running for Re-election.

 

            This brings us to our final example of the 1968 Republican primaries. We find our victor Richard Milhous Nixon. The main reason for his success was due to his prior success in winning the Republican nomination eight years earlier in 1960. Having already won a nomination one can argue that he would have familiarity just under being the President already.

 

             So now for the fun stuff, predicting who the nominee for the Republicans will be in 2012. Based on our historical analysis we can accurately predict that the next Republican nominee will be a person who the party is already familiar with. In my opinion this will leave only two possible people who could clinch the nomination. I believe the first and most obvious is of course Sarah Palin current governor of Alaska and the Vice-Presidential nominee in 2008. The other person who I can see winning the nomination is former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Huckabee did fairly well in the 2008 primary despite starting out as a second tier candidate. Huckabee currently has a show on Fox News which I believe will continue to help with his familiarity and name recognition, not only with the Republicans but with the nation as a whole.

           

            Other names that have been mentioned are former Governor Mit Romney and current Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. Governor Romney would be a perfect candidate for my hypothesis and I do believe he could win, however he has already stated he will not run in 2012. Bobby Jindal would be great if he can win, however as my historical analysis has shown he may be to new to the scene in order to win the Republican nomination.

 

            I really look forward to hearing some of everyone’s thoughts and opinions. I think this is a very good hypothesis and perhaps even a theory? You guys be the judge, but I do believe there is some sort of pattern!     

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Filed under Republican

The Republican 2012 Lineup

By Matt Knipple

            Now that the 2008 Presidential Election is over, it is time for us Republicans to look at who is going to unseat President Obama in 2012 (actually, I think this is very unlikely barring a massive meltdown by the new President).  Republicans have been frantically looking as to who will be our new “savior” and put the Republicans back on the map and give the country some sort of checks and balances since everything is run by the Democrats now (tear).  I have no first hand knowledge of who the Republicans will pick, but here are some candidates that I think will come to mind (whether I agree with them or not).

            The first candidate that I know for a fact has been tossed around in the mix is the one and only, Sarah Palin.  In my opinion, this would be one of the worst choices of all time to run for President.  She clearly already showed that she was probably the worst choice as a choice for Vice President.  She actually, to me, makes George W. Bush seem like he’s on a level of Steven Hawking.  To her credit, she does have an energetic personality and hypes up some people like others cannot.  She also has a pretty solid base that could possibly give her a push in the primaries to be picked (not me). 

Here is a video of the discussion of Sarah Palin throwing in her hat for 2012: 

            The second candidate that I also see as a long shot is Jeb Bush.  Yes, we could have another Bush in office!  He, as Palin, seems to have a base in the right that is very loyal to him and very excited about him.  Here is an older article about the possibility of Jeb running in either 2012 or 2016.  To be honest, I do not know much about the man and how he did as Governor of Florida, but I do not see him winning a Presidential election because of his last name alone.  He could be the second coming of Christ and would not stand a shot because of what W has done. 

            A third, more of a sleeper type candidate, would be the current Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist.  Crist is another guy I do not know a ton about but have heard enough about him to make some sort of impression.  He seems more like a moderate-Conservative, like myself, and could be a good, new, fresh candidate for the Republicans to try to use and get some of the Independent and Democratic vote.  He is not the stereotypical Republican, like Hannity or Limbaugh, but more of a “Maverick” in being more moderate. 

Here is a video for Crist for 2012:

            The most promising candidate for 2012 for the Republicans is Mitt Romney.  People have said the fight for the 2008 Republican nomination is akin to the 1976 fight between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan.  The aging, older Gerald Ford fended off Ronald Reagan, who became the face of the Republicans during his presidencies, just like the aging, older John McCain fended off Mitt Romney.  Ford went on to lose to Jimmy Carter just like John McCain went on to lose to Barack Obama.  Mitt Romney is rich and can get a lot of money raised just as Obama did and is very intelligent.  He might be guaranteed to be the nominee in 2012 if he so chooses. 

            Here is a final video made by somebody that includes many more people that he thinks can win the presidency for the Republicans in 2012:

            I’m not sure any of these people, like I said earlier, could dethrone Obama unless he completely screws up or for some reason does not run for President in 2012 but I thought I’d just go over some prospective candidates.

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Filed under American Electorate, McCain, Obama, Palin, Party Conventions, Republican