Calm down, try some Yoga. To my worried, liberal friends.

by Shawn Scanlon; Every_Man_A_King

Between Palin, McCain’s attack ads, and renewed Republican confidence, Democrats are worried.  My advice: calm down, take a breath, and look at Colorado/Virginia.

Colorado and Virginia are a crucial part of any Republican strategy.  They have 22 electoral votes, enough to ruin McCain’s chances at winning the race for the White House.  Virginia and Colorado are now more blue than red.  That’s right, in just 8 years, they both went from deep red, to swing state, to likely blue.  Likely blue, you ask?  Yup.

As we have seen in exit polls, those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher are more likely to vote democratic than those who do not hold such a degree.  There are only 5 states with a higher percentage of people with Bachelor’s degrees than Virginia or Colorado: they all went for Kerry in 2004.  These two likely will go for Obama this time.  According to the U.S. Census, 32.7% of Coloradoans have a Bachelor’s degree or higher.  In Virginia, it’s 29.5%.

Additionally, these are states with young voters, which tend to go for Obama.  Both Colorado and Virginia have median ages that are below the national average.

If we assume that Nevada, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire are the swing states, McCain must win over 60% of those electoral votes.  That is a tough task.

Fight hard, Obama fans, but keep this in mind: if Republicans think that they’re winning, they’re just plain wrong.

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “Calm down, try some Yoga. To my worried, liberal friends.

  1. caitlinmock

    The important thing is making sure all of the young voters are registered and actually show up to vote. But thank you, your comments might make me sleep easier tonight!

  2. Stephen Noriega

    I like the connection you make between the level of education on Virginia and Colorado and predicting voting behavior. I do not think these states have turned totally blue but you are right in spotting the trend.

    I do not know if Virginia is a true swing state yet. Virginia has a changing demographic in the north but a very stagnant constituency in the south. Other states may be farther from swing status, like Montana.

    Your points are well-taken. Obama has a wider political appeal regionally than Kerry and that may turn out to be the difference.

  3. Tony Robinson

    Good data Shawn. And you’re exactly right that the key factor driving both CO and VA into the Dem column is the growth of a young, professional and well educated “creative class.” The cowboys and the rednecks of lore, who do in fact tend to vote Repub are shrinking in both states. More Lattes, less Lassos spells demographic disaster for the GOP.

  4. Every_Man_A_King

    More lattes, less lassos! Well, I guess I need a new title for the blog… But yes, that’s the basic point I was driving at. And although VA and CO aren’t “blue” states to the extent we see in the northeast, I believe it’s gotten to the point where they are blue with a purple hue, rather than red.

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