The Nader Effect

Author: Jet Peterson

The year 2000 saw new changes in the world of politics first with the idea of the Supreme Court halting further recounts to effectively give the presidency to George W. Bush. Along with the sight of the importance of just a little over 1%. Ralph Nader the Green Party candidate of 2000 garnished just a little over 1% of the Florida vote that year. Currently he is now known as the spoiler for Gore.

Flashing forward to this year who and what is the possible Nader effect for this election. The primary season changed the face of politics and showed a few interesting ideas of how big of an effect this seasons Nader, Bob Barr. During the primary McCain fell behind twice of one Ron Paul, whom was just asked by Bob Barr to be the Libertarian ticket running-mate. Ron Paul recieved more votes of support than John McCain in the Nevada primary, and the Montana caucus. How large of an effect will that be in those two states, one of which, Nevada, is considdered a battleground?

This current season only sparringly does the major polling institutions take account of the third party by making them an option on who would be elected. The last Rasmussen that took that into account had Bob Barr polling at 6% nationally, an estimated that figure took 7% from McCain, 5% from Obama, and another 5% from undecideds. Olbermann on Countdown on MSNBC when Bob Barr, July 25, 2008, was the guest stated, “All the early polling has suggested that you(Barr) and Mr. Nader seperately and collectavely would get not insignificant support.” Fox Business earlier that month had Barr quoted stating,”We are already polling in some states in double digits. Which is very unusal for a Libertarian candidate.”  How large of a spoiler is Barr this election, when there is so many states that are within a 6% margin for one candidate or the other, Currently Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, New Mexico, Florida, and South Dakoda are up to be spoiled to the other side because of Barr.  While Barr will never be able to steal the lime-light or probally not even have enough polls to put him on the debates, will he be the spoiler of 2008 and take the Republicans with him?

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “The Nader Effect

  1. Stephen Noriega

    Your take on the polling issues with smaller party candidates is very interesting. Could you leave some URL’s next time so I could take a look at those specific Rasmussen polls? I have not heard quite the same buzz about Barr as I did about Nader in 2000. Of course, Nader is nothing compared to the Perot effect and how Clinton may have won his first election. I could see Barr possibly having an effect in Georgia and North Carolina, stealing some white vote where more African-American voters tip the scales there for Obama. Other places I believe it is a stretch to see Barr having any effect. Still, if Obama grabbed two southern states because of Barr, that would be historical.

  2. Tony Robinson

    Intriguing thoughts Jet. As stephen said, be sure to provide all your url links when you cite data or polls, so readers can visit them for more info. I think you are right to point to Montana and Nevada as possibly big Ron Paul states. I come from Montana, and there’s a lot of Ron Paul support whenever I talk to old friends. Intriguing to think that Ron Paul might swing Nevada, and the election, to Obama.

  3. Lance Thibert

    I think that if Ron Paul accepts Barr’s offer, then it’s very possible that the libertarian ticket would indeed have an effect, especially in the West. Battleground states including Colorado and Nevada would probably draw quite a bit of Barr-Paul support. If Obama can pull Colorado and Nevada, he can lose all other battleground states save for Michigan and still pull 274 electoral votes. However, I don’t see a Barr candidacy having much more than a local effect if Ron Paul does not join the ticket.

  4. johannhellkite

    Here is the poll I sighted, and the last know information about Barr on Rasmussen. The others are direct quotes, but available on youtube.com

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