It’s a Horse Race

While Obama’s campaign “change we can believe in” is resonating well with the young demographic of the United States, and favoritism for the GOP has significantly dropped under the Bush administration, the polls are showing a tight race between McCain and Obama.One might think that with skyrocketing gas prices, record inflation, the sub prime debacle, an economy teetering on the brink of recession, and an unpopular war, the democratic candidate would hold an insurmountable lead. Although Obama does tend to have a slight lead on McCain in recent polls, it is a slight one at that.
Other than the fact that Obama has the ability to swoon voters with his broad and generalizing rhetoric, he does not have a large passionate fan base. In fact, neither of the presidential candidates are largely popular with the general public, and this may be one of the reasons this election seems to be pulling a fairly close race. In this election we can’t write off the Reagan Democrats, or the Southern states. The Southern Democrats have known to be in favor of strong national defense issues, and McCain’s foreign policy stands well with these voters. Another issue that may swing the votes of the South in McCain’s favor are the rising prices for gasoline. McCain’s proposed policy of increased drilling, energy reliance, and nuclear energy gives him an edge on Obama’s wavering policy on this issue, as he was first opposed to offshore drilling and now says that he supports it.
The independent voters are also key in this election, along with the “swing states.” Although some say that independents are leaning toward the democratic party, it’s not set in stone. Many of these voters may lean toward McCain because he has more experience in politics, is the “original” maverick and there is also the story of his time as a prisoner of war. Let’s not forget that Obama attended Reverend Wrights church for twenty years without hearing his anti-American message. If McCain chooses to play dirty he could swing these voters by using the tactic of fear. Playing up this “church scandal” and scaring American’s into questioning his American nationality.
But let’s not forget that among the young voters, Obama pulls way ahead of McCain, and if these voters show up to the polls like they did in the primaries, this could bode well for Obama. We’ve seen him really advertising to this young demographic during his campaign. He continues to do so, as there has been talk of him announcing his VP pick via text messaging.
One thing’s for sure: this race is not over. With the race being so close, one can’t rule out McCain for presidency just yet.

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2 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized, Voter Demographics

2 responses to “It’s a Horse Race

  1. Tony Robinson

    This author is exactly right–polls show the race very tight. Even after the successful DNC and amazing Invesco event that was viewed by more people than American Idol finale–Obama does not seem to be pulling away. Even a hurricane ripping right through the middle of the RNC and reminding voters of that little thing called Katrina doesn’t seem to be moving things much. What gives? Here are some ideas:

    1) The polls are wrong. They are polling enough young people and first time/irregular voters who are swooning for Obama.

    2) America values a lifetime of heroic service (McCain) over a flash in the pan, no matter how flashy?

    3) Racism remains more real than we want to admit.

    4) America remains as deeply polarized as ever, with Dems and Reps dividing the nation 50/50 as they did in 2000 and 2004.

    There is good evidence for all these theories….the coming days will reveal more truths.

  2. Tony Robinson

    This post is good–but a bit more range in terms of the number of external sources cited and linked to would be good. Blog entries help open doors to readers for further exploration–the more doors you open, the better.

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